Full results available HERE.
An Ohio Northern poll of likely Ohio voters examines Issue 1 on the August 8 Ohio special election, a proposed statewide constitutional amendment relating to abortion and contraception and current voter preferences for the 2024 Ohio Senate race.
The Institute for Civics and Public Policy (ICAPP) at Ohio Northern University has released the Northern Poll, a web-based poll of 675 likely voters in Ohio taken from July 17th to July 26th. Dr. Robert Alexander and Dr. John Curiel led the project, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7%.
Ohioans closely divided on Issue 1
On August 8, Ohioans will vote on Issue 1–a ballot measure that would raise the threshold to amend the Ohio Constitution from a simple majority to 60%. The issue is the only item on the statewide ballot.
The poll authors note, “The legislature passed a resolution to permit this special election after having eliminated August elections earlier this year. The move is widely considered to have occurred in order to make enshrining abortion access in the Ohio Constitution more difficult.
“We find an almost equally split electorate 42-41 supporting and opposing the measure. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Democrats and Republicans are almost equally split on the issue, with 56% of Democrats opposed compared to 53% of Republicans in support. Independents show little preference either for or against the measure. August elections notoriously have low turnout and yet this issue is getting a great deal of attention and voter turnout efforts, with more than 70.6% have paid at least some attention, making the outcome difficult to predict.”
Dr. Robert Alexander comments,: “Issue 1 is the only item on the August statewide ballot and while it is aimed at increasing the thresholds to amend the Ohio Constitution, it is clear that it is mainly about making a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion access in the Ohio Constitution more difficult. We find a closely divided electorate, with partisanship explaining much of the divide.”
Proposed Ohio constitutional amendment on November 2023 ballot
This past week, a statewide constitutional amendment relating to abortion and contraception was approved to go before the voters on the November statewide ballot. The ONU researchers report: “Our poll shows conflicting results when it comes to abortion. Although a majority of respondents believe that Roe v. Wade should not have been overturned, a plurality (39%) agree that issues relating to abortion should be left to the states.
“A large majority of Ohio likely voters do think abortion should be legal (60%) and 54% say they would support a constitutional amendment to protect reproductive autonomy. Women and men effectively support increased bodily autonomy protections at the same level, 54% and 53% respectively. However, there are steep divides by party, with 68% of Democrats in support, compared to 46% for Independents and 44% for Republicans.
Alexander comments, “Our polling suggests just how important the outcome of Issue 1 will be to the success or failure of the November constitutional amendment regarding abortion access in the state. The amendment will likely have a very good chance of passing if it requires a simple majority, but could struggle to meet a 60% threshold.”
2024 U.S. Senate Race in Ohio
The ICAPP Northern Poll also queried respondents on the November 5, 2024 U.S. senate election in Ohio. The ONU researchers note, “Ohio has taken a sharp turn toward the GOP in the last few elections. The state supported Donald Trump in the last two presidential elections by 8 points and Democrat Sherrod Brown is viewed as vulnerable. Brown won by close margins in both 2012 and 2018, with a bare majority in 2012 and 54% of the vote in 2018. While we find that he currently holds significant leads in hypothetical matchups against potential opponents, no more than 45% of respondents say they would vote for him at this time.”
“While Brown currently has an advantage, it is one that would likely vanish once a Republican nominee is selected and a campaign is in full swing. Of the Republican challengers, GOP likely voters prefer current Secretary of State Frank LaRose (32%) over State Senator Matt Dolan (18%) and Businessman Bernie Moreno (7%).”
